Introduction
Mustang sold 569 in October and this is down 35.1% on the year to date numbers for last year and with stocks of the new model starting to appear we will see what happens over the next few months.
The Commodore sales for the ‘new’ model don’t seem to be holding up too well with only 663 units sold (1,755 less than in 2017) while the Aurion looks to have faded away and the Falcon racked up a single (surprising) sale. For the year to date the total passenger market is now down by 1.75% or 16,305 units.
The top sellers for this month see some significant changes. The Toyota Corolla (2,663) retained the overall lead ahead of the Mazda 3 (2,094) up two places in 2<sup>nd</sup> with the Hyundai i30 (2,049) down a place in 3<sup>rd</sup> and the Mazda CX-5 (2,000) up six places (most of what was lost last month) to 4<sup>th</sup>. The Subaru Forester (1,792) gained six places to 5<sup>th</sup>; the Mitsubishi ASX (1,739) dropped three places to 6<sup>th</sup>; Nissan XTrail (1,644) also dropped three places to 7<sup>th</sup>; the Toyota RAV 4 (1,582) gained a place to be 8<sup>th</sup>; Hyundai Tucson (1,530) gained three places to 9<sup>th</sup> and the VW Golf (1,418) gained three palces to round out the Top Ten. Kia Cerato and Toyota Prado both dropped out of the Top Ten.
If we were to include the 4x4 Utes in the listing, then the Toyota Hilux is in 1<sup>st</sup> place, Ford Ranger comes in at 2<sup>nd</sup> overall; the Mitsubishi Triton is 12<sup>th</sup> and the Holden Colorado takes 15<sup>th</sup> place. [/COLOR]No Ford models made it inside the Top 25 and sixteen of the Top 25 come from the one of the SUV categories.
The Large segment gained a fractional amount of share to just 1.04% of the market in October and it has shed 55.38% (13,053 units) in volume compared to 2017.
The top selling passenger vehicle sales are shown below:
.. and the same chart with the 4x4 Utes included:
The chart below looks at the large segment slide in comparison to the Light (Fiesta), Small (Focus) and Medium (Mondeo) segments during the last ten years – from a dominant position to almost at the bottom.
Ute 4x2
The Falcon Ute is gone now and won’t be included in future charts except where historically appropriate. Ranger sales were good with 417 sold during the month, only 9 less than the same time last year.
The Ford Ranger (down 11.5%) remained in 3<sup>rd</sup> place this month behind the Toyota Hilux (945) and Isuzu Ute D-Max (427) but in front of the Mazda BT-50 (316 +1) and Nissan Navara (281 -1).
For 2018 YTD the segment is now down 9.94% (3,046 units) although it held a bigger 3.37% share of the market.
4x4 Utes
The 4x4 Utes held an improved 16.58% of the total market during the month and their segment sales are now up 6.07% (8,189) for the year. Most of the major contenders have made gains compared to the same period last year – Triton (+9.6%), Hilux (+10.1%) and D-Max (+5.04%) with only the Holden Colorado (-6.9%) and Nissan Navara (-2.7%) taking a hit.
The Toyota Hilux (3,456) retained the segment lead from the Ford Ranger (3,094) while the Holden Colorado (1,382) gained two places Mitsubishi Triton (1,461) remained in 3<sup>rd</sup>, the Holden Colorado (1,382) gained a place to 4<sup>th</sup> and the Isuzu Ute D-Max (1,006) gained a spot in 5<sup>th</sup>.
Given the movement in the 4x4 and 4x2 Ute segments, we are going to include the previous quarterly analysis of how they are performing year against year in this report and report on it monthly instead. The only entrants included are those with both a 4x2 and 4x4 entrant so that does leave some out but nothing with any significant volume.
and a closer look at the 4x4 Utes only…
The final chart depicts the combined Holden and Ford sales for 4x2 Utes as a percentage share. This looks at the period from January 2012 when they both had two entries in the market place and as the Ranger continues, this chart will remain.
Prestige Segment
The Caprice looks to be finished with no sales and the luxury segment is down 16.93% overall. Chrysler’s 300/C managed 22 sold in October to be up fractionally on this time last year. With no Ford entrant in the category we no longer graph this category.
Fiesta / Light Segment
The Hyundai Accent (1,160) retained the segment lead with the Toyota Yaris (851) in 2<sup>nd</sup> and the Mazda 2 (767) up a place in 3<sup>rd</sup>.
The rest of the top group consists of:
VW Polo (708) up two places in 4<sup>th</sup>;
Kia Rio (522) up two places in 5<sup>th</sup>;
Suzuki Swift (503) down two places in 6<sup>th</sup>;
Holden Barina (377) up two places in 7<sup>th</sup>; and the
Ford Fiesta (4) still in 15<sup>th</sup> and last. The Honda Jazz dropped out of the top seven.
This segment held a smaller 7.1% of the total market in October and is down compared to 2017 by 7.92% (5,582 units). Not surprisingly, it’s downward results for about half the contenders in the segment with the Toyota Yaris down 14.2%, Mazda 2 down 11.6%, Fiesta down 61.3% and VW Polo down 19.0%. Holden Barina +3.9% and Suzuki Swift +32.0% are the biggest winners.
Please note we have shortened the time scale on some of the segment graphs as they were getting too difficult to read over the longer term.
Focus / Small Segment
The month saw Focus remain in 12<sup>th</sup> place with 104 sold. The segment lead was retained by the Toyota Corolla (2,663) with the Mazda 3 (2,094) up a place in 2<sup>nd</sup> and the Hyundai i30 (2,049) down a place in 3<sup>rd</sup>. The remainder of the Top ten are:
VW Golf (1,418) up a place to 4<sup>th</sup>;
Kia Cerato (1,338) down a place in 5<sup>th</sup>;
Holden Astra (1,103) up a place in 6<sup>th</sup>;
Honda Civic (728) down a place in 7<sup>th</sup>;
Subaru Impreza (546) steady in 8<sup>th</sup>; and
Mitsubishi Lancer (461) steady in 9<sup>th</sup>.
For the year to date, Corolla is down 4.4%, the Hyundai i30 is down 4.2%, Mazda 3 is down 3.6%, the Focus down by 25.9% andthe Subaru Impreza down 20.7%. On the winning side, VW Golf up 10.4% and Kia Cerato up 0.5%.
The segment held a lower market share of 16.99% in October and it is down overall by 6.93% (12,637 units) compared to 2017.
Mondeo / Medium Segment
In October, 193 Ford Mondeos were sold and it gained a spot to 3<sup>rd</sup> place. The segment lead was retained by the Toyota Camry which sold 1,132 with the Mazda 6 (306) still in 2<sup>nd</sup> and the Volkswagen Passat (122) down a place to 4<sup>th</sup> and the Skoda Ocatvia (106) steady in 5<sup>th</sup>. If they were counted on size and not price the CLA-Class (155) and BMW 3-Series (219) would have been in the top five.
Percentage wise, the Skoda Octavia (+6.3%) is the only winner compared to 2017 with the Subaru Liberty (-19.3%), Mondeo (-34.6%) and Honda Accord (-48.2%) the biggest losers and even the perennial Camry has dropped 38.1%.
The segment held a slightly improved 2.58% of the market in October and has lost volume by 30.55% compared with 2017 – a drop of 10,750 sales and it really is rapidly becoming as irrelevant a segment to contend in as the large segment has been for some years.
Ecosport / Light SUV Segment
During October, the Ford Ecosport sold 101 units and it gained a place to be in 12<sup>th</sup> place with the rest of the order being:
Mitsubishi ASX (1,739) retained the segment lead;
Mazda CX-3 (1,274) up three places to 2<sup>nd</sup>;
Hyundai Kona (1,224) down a place to 3<sup>rd</sup>;
Subaru XV (1,224) down one place in 4<sup>th</sup>;
Nissan Qashqai (1,054) down a place to 5<sup>th</sup>;
Toyota CH-R (1,019) steady in 6<sup>th</sup>; and
Subaru XV (916) up one place in 7<sup>th</sup>.
Please note that we have realigned our stats with the VFACTs categories now that there is a Ford entrant in this segment.
Mostly losers in this segment, the Nissan Juke is down 50.2%, Holden Trax down 22.1% and the Ecosport down by 12.3%. On the other side, Subaru XV is up 43.6% and the Mitsubishi ASX up 7.5%.
The segment held a much smaller 11.52% of the market in October and it is up 23.46% (19,841) compared to 2017.
Escape / Compact SUV Segment
During October, the Escape sold 293 units and it dropped one place to 11<sup>th</sup> place with the top positions held by:
Mazda CX-5 (2,000) up two places to take the segment lead;
Subaru Forester (1,792) up three places to 2<sup>nd</sup>;
Nissan X-Trail (1,644) down two place in 3<sup>rd</sup>;
Mitsubishi Outlander (1,719) up two places in 4<sup>th</sup>;
Toyota RAV4 (1,582) up three places in 5<sup>th</sup>;
Hyundai Tucson (1,530) steady in 6<sup>th</sup>; and
Kia Sportage (1,216) up two places in 7<sup>th</sup>.
Most contenders are now up in volume for the YTD with only the Ford Escape down 11.4%, Hyundai Tuscon down 18.1% and Subaru Forester down 12.4%. Honda CR-V is up 86.3%, Toyota RAV4 up 6.9% and Nissan X-Trail up 14.0%.
The segment held a more normal 16.3% of the market in October and it is up 6.97% (9,510 units) compared to 2017.
Everest / Medium SUV Segment
The segment lead was retained by the Toyota Prado (1,388) ahead of the Toyotas Kluger (1,294) in 2<sup>nd</sup> with the Mitsubishi Pajero + Sport (746) up a place to 3<sup>rd</sup>. The rest of the Top 10:
Subaru Outback (728) down a place to 4<sup>th</sup>;
Hyundai Santa Fe (721) up a place to 5<sup>th</sup>;
Isuzu Ute MU-X (668) down a place in 6<sup>th</sup>;
Mazda CX-9 (549) steady in 7<sup>th</sup>;
VW Tiguan All Space (424) down a place to 8<sup>th</sup>;
Ford Everest (369) steady in 9<sup>th</sup>; and
Kia Sorento (346) up a place in 10<sup>th</sup>.
Prado (+21.1%), Kluger (+20.9%) and Everest (+20.1%) are all better than last year with only the Captiva (-46.3%), Pajero + Sport (-12.5%) and Hyundai Santa Fe (-9.7%) showing any substantial drop. The segment held an improved 11.15% of the market in October and has now gained volume by 0.17% for the year to date – an increase of 162 sales.
The second chart depicts sales for the Territory and Everest over the entire production life.
Market Share Analysis
For an easy look at the share held by each market segment, we have included a set of graphs that display this for quick reference – the first looks at the percentage market share for the current month while the second compares the percentage numbers for the current month for the last three years where is easy to see quickly which segments have gained and which have lost. We have also added a look at the segment movements in raw numbers terms for the month YTD. This shows the actual unit numbers that have been gained or lost within each segment for the year to date.
Total Market
Toyota retained the passenger market leadership in October with 17,539 passenger segment sales giving them a comfortable lead over Mazda (8,172 and up two); Hyundai (7,432) down a place in 3<sup>rd</sup>; Mitsubishi (6,217) down a place in 4<sup>th</sup>; Ford (5,292) up one place in 5<sup>th</sup>; Holden (5,256) up three places in 6<sup>th</sup>; VW (4,835) up a place in 7<sup>th</sup>; Kia (4,583) down a place in 8<sup>th</sup> and Nissan (4,241) down four places to 9<sup>th</sup>.
In percentage terms Ford is down 12.0% on 2017, Mazda down 3.7% and Holden are down 27.6%. On the positive side, Mitsubishi is up 8.8%, Kia is up 7.6% and Toyota is up 1.0%.
The chart below looks at the same data but over a shorter time frame so that movements are a little easier to detect.
We have been taking a look at the 15+-year history of the four manufacturers (Ford, Holden, Mazda and Toyota) from 2000 to the current time. These figures are based on year to date sales and as well as making the recent gain in the overall market apparent they also clearly depict how Toyota has pulled away from everyone since 2003; Mazda’s gain (and overtaking) of Ford in the 3<sup>rd</sup> to 5<sup>th</sup> place battle and the increasing penetration of both Nissan and Hyundai.
The next set of charts look at the trends within each segment and draws some comparisons between various battles within them. Please note that these graphs are based on the percentage share of the total market and as the market has been growing each year for the last decade or so (with the exception of 2009) the actual gains or losses are significantly greater than the gradual changes shown in the graph.
First up is a look at the four passenger segments where we can clearly see the continued slide in the large car segment, the strength of the dominant small segment and the rise in the light segment.
.. and a more targeted look at three critical segments over a shorter time frame:
Second is the percentage share held by each segment during the last five years – worth noting is the impact of the SUV realignment and the continued, if somewhat inconsistent, strength of the small segment.
Third is a closer look at the sport, prestige and luxury segments over the same time frame. While some of the vehicles that get placed in these categories defy logic they are the segments that are a good indicator of the general economic performance in Australia and they had all trended slightly downward but appear to have rallied so far this year.
Fourth is a look at the SUV segments. These segments had been growing quite rapidly and most of that growth had been in the compact and medium sized vehicles but after the realignment this year the medium segment now has the upper hand over the compact segment most of the time although it is inconsistent. We have included the new segment for completeness.
To see who the winners and the losers are so far this year here is a comparison of the various manufacturers on a YTD basis when compared to last year. For the purpose of the exercise we have obviously picked the (modern) big four; Toyota, Holden, Mazda and Ford but also added a couple of others that have been big movers in recent times by way of comparison. The first chart looks at the raw numbers while the second looks at the percentage variation.
Drilling down on the winners and losers a bit more shows some interesting changes amongst both manufacturers and individual models.
The biggest overall improver is Honda, gaining 6,293 sales which represent a 16.9% improvement on 2017. Very few others actually have gained share, with a better than 10% improvement only including MG (361%), LDV (+152%), Great Wall (+78.3%), Ferrari (+41.7%) and Alfa Romeo (+26.7%) mostly based on very low volumes. Skoda (+12%) made good gains based on decent volume.
The biggest overall loser is Holden, down 27.6% and 19,368 sales, mostly Commodore. Other losers to shed more than 10% include Fiat (-42.5%), Land Rover (-18.6%) and Ford lost 12.0%.
In terms of individual models, the Honda CR-V (6,315) has gained the most sales ahead of the Subaru XV (3,645), Toyota CH-R (3,208) and Toyota Hilux 4x4 (2,889).
The biggest losing models (for those still in production) include Subaru Forester (-2,109), Ford Mustang (-2,810), Mercedes C-Class (-2,950), Hyundai Tucson (-3,688), Holden Captiva (-3,706), and Toyota Camry (-7,804).
Next up is a look at some individual models – naturally all of the current Ford range with any real volume has been included but also the segment leaders and the red corner competition along with anything else that seemed of interest.
.. and a (newer) comparison of all the non-Falcon based Ford models. Please note that the Mustang is now included.
State of Origin
We also take a quick look at the sales by State. The data is for the year to date and looks at the years from 2007 to 2018. All of the States gained volume for the year to date except NSW which is down 5.0%, SA -2.0%, ACT -0.5 and the NT down 4.2%. West Australia and Tasmania are the biggest winners with 1.0% and 6.4% growth, respectively. All except WA (-22.0%) and Northern Territory (-3.2%) have improved compared to ten years ago with Victoria (+19.0%) the biggest improver over that period.
The first chart looks at the raw sales numbers over the period while the second compares the percentage change between 2017 and 2018.
Country of Origin
Finally, a little look at the origin of our vehicles - not really a concern now that we know the future of our automotive industry but it does at least show where some of the production off shore originates.
The pie chart shows the major origins for vehicles sold in the Australian market on a YTD basis (along with a comparison from 2012) while the second chart compares those figures to the previous years and the final chart shows a YTD total (by year) for all imports compared to locally produced.
Ford Australia Sales Stats October (10) 2018
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